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000
ABNT20 KNHC 201701
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Claudette, located inland over east-central Georgia.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Stewart/Brown
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...CLAUDETTE FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT EXITS THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
As of 5:00 PM EDT Sun Jun 20
the center of Claudette was located near 34.2, -82.5
with movement ENE at 17 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
000
WTNT33 KNHC 202031
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Claudette Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
...CLAUDETTE FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT EXITS THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 82.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM W OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.
Interests elsewhere across the Carolinas should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Claudette was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 82.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h). An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the system should continue to move across
portions of the southeastern U.S. through tonight, move over the
coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday,
and pass near or just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some re-strengthening is expected tonight, and Claudette is
forecast to become a tropical storm again late tonight or early
Monday over eastern North Carolina. Some additional strengthening
is possible over the western Atlantic Ocean through early Tuesday.
Claudette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday
afternoon or Tuesday night.
The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is
1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce additional rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches
across North Florida, southeastern Georgia, central and coastal
South Carolina into central to eastern North Carolina through Monday
morning. Flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts, as well as
isolated minor river flooding are possible across these areas.
Storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated 15 inch amounts
was observed in southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Claudette, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS3 with the
WMO header ACUS43 KWBC or at the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
NC/VA Border to Cape Lookout, NC...1-3 ft
Cape Lookout, NC to Little River Inlet, SC...1-2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area late tonight or early Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and Monday.
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across
parts of the central and eastern Carolinas.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
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Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021
000
WTNT23 KNHC 202031
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021
2100 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 82.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 82.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 83.3W
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.0N 79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.9N 74.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 50SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 70SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 42.4N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 45.5N 58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 82.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
000
WTNT43 KNHC 202032
TCDAT3
Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
Satellite and surface observations show that Claudette's circulation
has become elongated today and that there is a fairly large area of
light winds near the center. Observations along the southeastern
U.S. coast and over coastal sections of the Carolinas indicate that
the winds have increased somewhat but these data still support an
initial intensity of 25 kt. As Claudette approaches the coast
overnight and Monday morning, restrengthening is anticipated, and
the cyclone is forecast to regain tropical storm status before it
exits the coast of North Carolina. Some additional strengthening
is forecast while Claudette moves over the warm waters of the Gulf
Stream and the shear remains low. The system should become
extratropical Tuesday afternoon when it passes near Nova Scotia,
and the global models indicate that it will degenerate into a
trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning. The NHC intensity
foreast is close to the intensity model consensus and follows the
trends of the various global models.
The depression is moving east-northeastward at around 15 kt. A
mid-latitude trough that is moving into the central United States
should continue to steer Claudette east-northeastward to
northeastward over the next couple of days. The center of Claudette
is forecast to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina Monday
morning, then pass well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday
night, and be near or just southeast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.
The dynamical model guidance remains in very good agreement and the
NHC forecast again lies near the various consensus aids.
Key Messages:
1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding from North Florida and southeastern Georgia into the
Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts are possible across these areas.
2. Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across parts of the
central and eastern Carolinas.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 34.2N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 35.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/1800Z 36.9N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 22/0600Z 39.3N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 42.4N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 23/0600Z 45.5N 58.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021
000
FONT13 KNHC 202031
PWSAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021
2100 UTC SUN JUN 20 2021
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) X(26) X(26)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 16(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 24(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
RALEIGH NC 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ROCKY MT NC 34 2 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 32(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 18 9(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHERRY PT NC 34 3 28(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
NEW RIVER NC 34 1 21(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 22(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
SURF CITY NC 34 7 14(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
WILMINGTON NC 34 11 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
FLORENCE SC 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
COLUMBIA SC 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
LITTLE RIVER 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 20:50:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Jun 2021 21:22:38 GMT
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Issued at 443 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
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Issued at 507 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
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