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Tropical Storm Cindy Five-Day Forecast



Tropical Storm Cindy Computer Tracking Models


Courtesy of Weather Underground

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221125
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cindy, located just inland along the Texas/Louisiana border.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


Summary for Tropical Storm Cindy (AT3/AL032017)
...CINDY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING FARTHER INLAND... As of 7:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 the center of Cindy was located near 30.5, -93.7 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.


Tropical Storm Cindy Public Advisory Number 11A
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

000
WTNT33 KNHC 221134
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
700 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...CINDY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING FARTHER INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 93.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 93.7 West.  Cindy is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward the
north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn
toward the northeast on Friday.  On the forecast track, Cindy
will move into southeastern Arkansas early Friday, and into
Tennessee later on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cindy
should weaken to a tropical depression later this morning, and
become a remnant low tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Cindy is expected to produce rain accumulations of 3 to 6
inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches over eastern
Texas, western and central Louisiana, and southern and eastern
Arkansas through Friday morning.  Additional rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over southern
Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, and extreme western
Florida Panhandle are expected through Friday morning.  This
rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall is expected to begin and expand across parts of the
Tennessee and Ohio valleys.  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are expected through Friday
morning.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area.  These conditions should subside
in a few hours.

STORM SURGE:  Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area.  Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible
elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western
Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through tonight from the
lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley regions to the central Gulf
Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Advisory Number 11
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 22 2017

000
WTNT23 KNHC 220851
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032017
0900 UTC THU JUN 22 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED EAST OF MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA AND WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N  93.6W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE   0SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N  93.6W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  93.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.4N  93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.4N  92.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.4N  89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.0N  83.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N  93.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 


Tropical Storm Cindy Forecast Discussion Number 11
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

000
WTNT43 KNHC 220852
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Radar imagery from Slidell and Lake Charles, Louisiana along with
surface synoptic data, particularly those from Calcasieu Pass
Louisiana, indicate that the center of Cindy crossed the coast
between Cameron Louisiana and Port Arthur Texas an hour or two ago.
The observations from Calcasieu indicate that the intensity is now
around 35 kt.  Now that the center is inland, steady weakening will
occur and the system should become a depression later today, and be
reduced to a post-tropical remnant low tonight.  In 2-3 days, or
sooner, the remnant low of Cindy should become absorbed into a
frontal zone over the eastern United States.

The initial motion is a little faster, and is about 360/10 kt.
Cindy should continue to move through a break in the subtropical
ridge today, and gradually turn toward the northeast and
east-northeast as it encounters mid-level westerly flow over the
next couple of days.  The official track forecast lies between the
GFS and ECMWF predictions.

Although Cindy is weakening, it will continue to produce heavy
rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast and the
southeastern and eastern United States, along with the potential
for life-threatening flash flooding in some locations.  For
more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your
local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 29.9N  93.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  22/1800Z 31.4N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/0600Z 33.4N  92.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1800Z 35.4N  89.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 37.0N  83.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Storm Cindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 22 2017

000
FONT13 KNHC 220852
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032017               
0900 UTC THU JUN 22 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
JACKSON MS     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34 23   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
FORT POLK LA   34 35   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CAMERON LA     34 36   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
JASPER TX      34 14   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34 11   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    


Tropical Storm Cindy Graphics
Tropical Storm Cindy 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Jun 2017 11:35:03 GMT

Tropical Storm Cindy 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Jun 2017 09:22:01 GMT


Local Statement for New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA
Issued at 436 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017


Local Statement for Houston / Galveston, TX
Issued at 440 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017


Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA
Issued at 704 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2017


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